Tariffs, regulations, and China: The next five years could reshape the car industry more than most people expect.
If you think there are fewer new vehicles coming to market these days, you are correct. The number of launches for the 2026 model year was one of the lightest in years and the dearth of new vehicles will get worse before the eventual rebound, according to the Murphy Automotive Product Pipeline report on what to expect over the next five years.
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Not all brands and automakers will survive. “We believe a day of reckoning is on the horizon. Certain brands, and possibly manufacturers, will not survive in the U.S. market,” the MAPP report concludes. Uncertainty about tariffs and regulations, along with the rise of Chinese automakers globally, are contributing to their demise.
Toyota appears to be the brand with the least to fear, leading roughly a dozen brands MAPP deems to be in good shape, followed by about 18 brands in the middle, according to the report’s Brand Survival Index that scores the viability of each, noting those that lean on aging lineups or deferred EV programs will lose market share.
There are about seven brands at risk, but MAPP did not release their identities. We can speculate they include some of the 14 brands under Stellantis (Chrysler, Dodge), plus Infiniti, Polestar, Lotus, and newcomers like Slate, Lucid, or even Rivian . Murphy said there will be a significant culling, some brands will exit the market, and some companies will restructure
Murphy Automotive Partners is an independent automotive research and advisory firm founded by John Murphy. It builds on the Car Wars product competitive study that Murphy produced for decades for Bank of America and which he has reprised at his new company. He released the findings at an Automotive Press Association event in Detroit.
2026 Toyota RAV4. Toyota is considered the safest brand going forward.
Determining Which Brands Will Succeed
MAPP looks at the vehicles planned to come to market through the 2031 model year and assesses which brands are positioned to succeed and which may not make it. The basic premise of the forecasting: Automakers that consistently launch the right vehicle, in the right segment, with the right powertrain at the right time gain share and make money. Those that lag, don’t.
Product is key to success, regardless of how it is powered, the “Survival of the Freshest” report shows. “The next five years aren’t about who has the most hyped concept, they’re about who actually shows up with the freshest product portfolio after the worst [new product] drought in history,” Murphy said. “Some of the most familiar names in this industry are closer to the edge than the market realizes.”
New product lifts pricing and volume for about three years. A midcycle refresh helps with pricing, but volume will continue to slip, something automakers should consider when they extend vehicles’ lives, MAPP said.
Murphy says Stellantis injects a wild card into the game with its recent announcement of a flurry of new models coming for its 14 brands. He calls it a discombobulated and disorganized strategy that will introduce a lot of new products but the plan is not set up to be repeatable over five or 10 years and could disrupt an otherwise disciplined market, putting industry profits at risk.